2021 Forecast
Health care continues to be in transition and disruptive change is the norm now. If anything, the pace of change is accelerating, producing stiff financial headwinds.
The Cares Act passed by Congress provided initial monies for hospitals, yet these dollars come with tight performance parameters.
ED physicians learned quickly what worked well to combat the effects of the virus and what did not work. One takeaway has been that not all sick patients need a ventilator.
Physicians used drugs prescribed for malaria and lupus effectively to treat the virus and the federal government secured the necessary approvals from the FDA for off-label use.
Pharmaceutical companies developed effective new vaccines and anti-viral therapeutics in less than one year.
Some primary care physicians proved at-risk patients with one or more comorbidities need to seek treatment in the first three days after being diagnosed with the virus to avoid the cytokinetic storm in the lungs that usually is fatal.
The coronavirus and its two new variants will present a challenge to the health care system. The impact will be uneven since some states will have a low incidence of hospitalization and mortality from the new variants while others will experience higher metrics.
America will develop herd immunity for the coronavirus in 2021. The new vaccines and the ability of pharmaceutical companies to develop additional market-ready vaccines to combat variants of the coronavirus will accelerate this process.
Pricing transparency will not be the powerful market disrupter envisioned, but consumerism is here to stay as more hospitals launch a consumer-friendly digital platform making it easier for consumers to access health care. Telehealth will continue to grow in utilization and importance, especially for the younger demographic.
Hospitals will expand their analytics capability to produce actionable intelligence on social media connections, referrals, and testimonials. Also, more providers will use push and pull digital marketing to grow patient visits and revenue.
Wal-Mart, CVS, and others will secure a share of lower-acuity walk-in traffic in their effort to remake retail medicine while some providers look to “upstream medicine” as a way to embrace the coming change.
The industry consolidation process will continue, albeit at a reduced pace given the financial stressors of dealing with the after-effects of a pandemic.
Amazon, Google, and Microsoft will continue to expand their footprint in health care through partnerships and the development of AI tools to diagnose disease, identify at-risk patient cohorts, and improve treatments.
CFO’s will look for new ways to hone each component of the revenue cycle for greater efficiencies and cost savings.
Medicare-for-all will still be only a political talking point at the end of 2021.
Health care leaders will be less likely to transition to value given the significant financial challenges. They will focus instead on optimizing patient engagement strategies to build brand loyalty, use analytics to streamline the patient funnel, and build volumes in more profitable service lines to blunt the impact of significant market disruptors.
There is more opportunity now than at any previous time to introduce real change to health care that speaks to patient engagement, wellness, “upstream medicine”, and the quality of life itself.
Embracing change is not counterintuitive, but essential in a health care environment where change is accelerating with many moving parts. Senior leaders are all-in for innovation that will streamline operations and reduce cost while improving patient engagement, patient satisfaction, and patient outcomes.
Growing more volume in profitable service lines will be a key focus. The advent of new cost accounting tools will enhance the ability to determine more accurate costing for each service line. In addition, CFO’s will look for new ways to hone each component of the revenue cycle for greater efficiency and cost savings.