The transition back to normal has begun, although the pace and stage of reopening in states varies widely. Despite this, we believe the new “normal” will be shorter than forecast based on several new realities.

Our health care system with its strong leadership and brave, skilled care teams have led the way in planning and executing an industry response to COVID-19. Again, “two very smart scientists” told the President that as many as 2.2 million Americans would die if he did not declare a national emergency and shut-down most of the economy.

We can debate why the AHCE model was so wildly flawed when this is over and assess the efficacy of each federal and state act to mitigate the contagion and mortality caused by COVID-19.

Here are several compelling facts that will drive a reopening of states near-term:

• The summer’s direct sunshine, warm weather, and greater humidity works against COVID-19 by killing it in about one minute
• The real data shows the likely mortality rate will be as low as .1%
• This will reflect the significant number of people who were asymptomatic
• Those under 18 years of age have virtually no risk from COVID-19 and need to be in school, play sports, and go about their lives
• If you are under the age of 60, your risk is no more than with the seasonal flu
• Those among us who are the most vulnerable, elderly nursing home patients, need to be protected (see below)
• Those with diabetes, heart or lung disease, obesity, cancer, or an auto-immune system disorder are at greater risk than the general population
• The virus binds to hemoglobin much like malaria
• This is not a disease of oxygen deprivation but of oxygen delivery
• Diabetics have the highest risk because of their lower levels of existing oxygen caused by glucose binding to their hemoglobin
• Northwell Health’s initial EHR data confirmed only 18% of patients on a ventilator survived
• Yet, 69% of patients with heart disease who were given a blood thinner survived on a ventilator versus only 18% who were not given a blood thinner
• Doctors have learned who can benefit from being on a ventilator and who should not be on a ventilator
• Doctors know how to treat viral pneumonia successfully and are using these same protocols successfully to treat the virus
• Lessons learned from treating gravely ill patients the past two months give providers more tools than ever to defeat the viral infection
• Early results of a study on the efficacy of blood plasma therapy are promising
• Herd immunity is not an unknown; data from LA County and Miami-Dade County suggests as much as 16% of their populations were asymptomatic and already had antibodies – the percentage of asymptomatic people in the population could be much higher
• Testing for antibodies is ramping-up since experts now believe immunity will last at least 3 years and could be permanent
• A promising new vaccine for COVID-19 is in a Phase 2 trial and may be available by year-end
• A few existing drugs have saved thousands of lives and several new therapeutic drugs look promising
• Many patients who were undergoing treatment for cancer stopped taking treatment
• Many necessary surgeries were postponed
• Some patients stopped going for necessary regular check-ups and many people have stopped going to the ED for emergency treatment because of fear of the virus
• Suicides and opioid use have spiked at least 4-fold during the national shut-down
• The economic devastation caused by the national shut-down is overwhelming with 40 million adults now out-of-work

A closed country for several more months is neither advisable nor feasible. Smart governance and real leadership are always serious differentiators, but especially in a crisis of this magnitude.

Several common sense questions beg an answer.

Why did several governors mandate nursing home residents who tested positive be returned to their facility? This of course enabled the virus to spread rapidly among the nursing home resident population and caregivers. As a result, 67% of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in one state have been nursing home patients!

Why did some governors refuse to shut-down visitation to nursing home residents while others did, thereby protecting their most vulnerable population?

Is it true physicians and medical examiners have been incentivized to assign COVID-19 as the cause of death to a Medicare patient who died from a suicide but tested positive for the virus recently?

Anecdotal evidence suggests COVID-19 has been the assigned cause of death for frail nursing home patients who tested positive for COVID-19 but actually died from a serious pre-existing medical condition.

Why should a Walmart or Target be able to stay open if they practice social distancing and limit the number of customers in the store at any one time when a Macy’s or small business gift shop must remain closed despite an ability to do the same thing?

Why are most small businesses considered non-essential?

Why are tattoo parlors open for business while churches are not?

Why does one governor implement a smart county-by-county reopening based on individual county data while others remain tethered to a whole-of-state strategy based on a multi-stage plan where several stages appear to be ‘A distinction without a difference’?

Moreover, if the initial must-accomplish goal were to bend the contagion and hospitalization curves and America achieved this, why are some governors refusing to reopen their states in a meaningful way? Is something other than real data driving their decisions?

The national media needs to stop peddling fear and opinion through the prism of a partisan narrative in an election year. The CDC and the COVID-19 model used were wrong. The CDC just acknowledged the real fact-based data about COVID-19.

The evidence is in. Health care is treating COVID-19 successfully.

Doctors learned in real-time how to treat patients with a different co-morbidity. PPE, ventilators, and ICU beds are plentiful now.

Testing is increasing exponentially. A new promising vaccine now is in a Phase Two trial and new therapeutics are in the testing pipeline.

Americans need to return to work.

Business and industry know how to implement smart strategies that will keep workers safe while enabling companies to get back to what they do, providing products and services for all of us. This in turn will enable employees to take care of themselves and their families.

Adults need to resume their lives. Kids need to return to the classroom in the fall to get a real education and resume the entirety of their lives.

Health care has met the challenge. Patients need their cancer treatments, life-saving surgeries, elective surgeries that improve quality of life, and routine medical check-ups to ensure they are well.

Hospitals know how to protect these patients while also treating new patients who have COVID-19.

America needs to reopen  – we can and must do this now!

Jonathan